On Monday, December 9, 2024, Google announced the arrival of Willow, a quantum chip that has reduced the error tendencies of some of its predecessors.
This tech is a milestone in the effort to bring quantum computing into the real world, and in the years ahead, it could change the way we think about the risk in cryptocurrencies.
Willow’s speed is almost incomprehensible — according to Google, it’s able to perform a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve.
Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
Is Google’s Willow A Threat To Bitcoin’s Security?
Willow’s combination of speed and accuracy could theoretically provide hackers with the tools to unlock the algorithms that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are built upon.
But while tech enthusiasts are celebrating, Bitcoin holders might want to sweat. Willow could, one day, dismantle the cryptographic fortress that keeps Bitcoin secure.
Bitcoin runs on cryptographic algorithms—unbreakable puzzles that protect the blockchain.
While traditional computers can’t touch these cryptographic algorithms, can we say the same for quantum computers like Willow? That’s another story.
With insane speed and improving error correction, quantum machines could turn Bitcoin’s secure foundation into a playground for hackers. The real question isn’t if—it’s when.
Willow’s Mechanics And Bitcoin’s Shaky Defense
Regular computers use bits—ones and zeroes—to process information. Quantum computers use qubits, which don’t play by the same rules.
Qubits exist in multiple states at once, allowing them to explore countless solutions simultaneously.
Imagine a maze: your laptop tries one path at a time. A quantum computer? It takes every single path at once and walks out before your laptop finishes tying its shoes.
This is where Willow shines. It doesn’t just operate fast, it’s also reportedly quite precise. Until now, quantum systems were wild, unstable, and prone to errors.
Tim Hollebeek, a tech strategist at DigiCert, explains, “Part of the issue with qubits is that they are unstable and produce errors. Willow has significant error correction capabilities, which mitigates some of these issues.”
But here’s where it gets scary for Bitcoin. Willow’s combination of speed and accuracy means quantum chips could eventually break the cryptographic algorithms that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rely on.
Bitcoin vs. The Quantum Timeline
Google’s people aren’t exactly running victory laps over Bitcoin’s grave. A company spokesperson was clear: “The Willow chip is incapable of breaking modern cryptography.”
That might sound reassuring, but here’s the thing, all of Silicon Valley knows quantum computers are coming. The timeline? Five to 15 years, depending on advancements. That’s not comforting if you’re banking on Bitcoin staying untouchable.
Park Feierbach, CEO of Radiant Commons, thinks even if Willow could hypothetically speed up the process of breaking crypto, it would still take longer than the age of the universe for it to actually do so.
For reference, the universe is 13.7 billion years old. Feierbach sums it up: “There’s almost no reason to deploy Willow on this technology in a way that could make tractable progress. It would simply still take too long.”
Here’s what Bitcoin believers can hang on to though: RSA, one of the encryption systems tied to Bitcoin’s security, is still safe—for now. Analysts estimate breaking RSA would require around four million physical qubits. That’s millions, not hundreds like Willow currently has.
But Google says it is still 10 years away from quantum that can decode crypto, and new quantum-safe cryptocurrencies may emerge.
Crypto Prepares Quantum-Safe Solutions
But the crypto industry isn’t just sitting back, hoping quantum chips stay in development hell. They’re already working on defenses.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has rolled out quantum-safe algorithms designed to withstand attacks from quantum computers. These algorithms don’t rely on the same cryptographic puzzles that quantum machines excel at cracking.
Instead, they’re based on math problems that even the most advanced quantum chips struggle with. Google itself has been part of this effort, testing draft versions of these quantum-safe solutions.
“The security community has long been aware of the projected timeline to break asymmetric encryption and has been working on defining standards,” a Google spokesperson said.
Taqi Raza, an assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, believes this will lead to entirely new cryptocurrencies designed to be quantum-resistant.
“New quantum cryptos would integrate post-quantum cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to the computational power of quantum computers,” Raza said.
That’s good news, but it comes with a caveat. Retrofitting Bitcoin or Ethereum to adopt quantum-safe measures won’t be easy.
The crypto industry is caught in a weird paradox. On one hand, quantum computing feels like an apocalyptic scenario for Bitcoin. On the other hand, it could push the entire crypto ecosystem into a new era.
